Duterte tells worried foreign businesses to go

AFP

 27  October 25, 2016

"Russel says 'Duterte comments causing worries in business communities'. Then you pack up and leave. We will recover, I assure you."

TOKYO: President Rodrigo Duterte on Tuesday urged foreign businesses in the Philippines worried about his deadly drug war to “pack up and leave”, as he launched another anti-American tirade before flying to Japan to attract investments.

Duterte voiced outrage at comments the previous day by the top US envoy to Asia that his fiery rhetoric and crime war, which has claimed about 3,700 lives in four months, were bad for business.

“These Americans are really crazy. Their style is to walk here. They think they are somebodies,” Duterte said, as he held up a newspaper with headlines reporting the criticism from US assistant secretary of state Daniel Russel.

“Russel says ‘Duterte comments causing worries in business communities’. Then you pack up and leave. We will recover, I assure you.”

Duterte then flew to Japan, one of the top US allies in Asia, for a three-day visit that is partly aimed at building on two-way trade of more than $18 billion dollars last year.

“With Japan as the Philippines’ top trading partner, I shall seek the sustainment and further enhancement of our important economic ties,” Duterte, 71, said in prepared remarks at Manila airport.

“I look forward to meeting business leaders in Japan. I will tell them clearly that the Philippines is open for business.”

Duterte will meet with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and have an audience with Emperor Akihito during the trip, which follows his headline-grabbing state visit to China last week.

Duterte, a self-proclaimed socialist with close links to communists, announced in Beijing the Philippines’ “separation” from the United States, throwing into doubt a 70-year alliance that is anchored on a mutual defence treaty.

He quickly walked back from his comments after returning from China, saying “separation” did not mean he would “sever” ties and that the US alliance would continue.

But his anti-American vitriol also continued.

No lapdog

Duterte said Tuesday he was not a “lapdog” of the United States, and again voiced anger at American and European criticism of apparent extrajudicial killings on his watch.

“You are a son of a whore,” he said referring to his critics.

“Do not make us dogs. Do not. As if I am a dog with a leash and then you throw bread far away that I cannot reach.”

Duterte has previously branded US President Barack Obama a “son of a whore” and told him to “go to hell”.

Russel, the US envoy, said after meeting Philippine Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay on Monday that many people around the world were becoming increasingly worried about Duterte’s tirades.

“The succession of controversial statements, comments and a real climate of uncertainty about the Philippines’ intentions have created consternation in a number of countries,” Russel said.

“Not only in mine and not only among governments, but also growing concern in other communities, in the expat Filipino community, in corporate boardrooms as well.”

Japan, which is wary of China’s rising influence in the region, signalled it would be looking for clarification from Duterte about his foreign policy plans.

“It is important to have good communication and to listen directly to what Mr Duterte has in mind,” Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters when asked about the firebrand leader’s comments on ties with Washington.

Abe had worked to improve bilateral relations with Duterte’s predecessor, Benigno Aquino.

Japan provided patrol boats to support the Philippines in its territorial row with Beijing over rival claims to the South China Sea, as it sought backing in its own maritime dispute with China.

Aquino took Beijing to an international tribunal over its extensive claims in the South China Sea — where it has built artificial islands capable of hosting military facilities — and the Philippines won a resounding victory in July.

But Duterte has sought not to use the verdict to anger China, instead worked to improve ties and attract billions of dollars in Chinese loans and investments.

Duterte wants US troops out in two years

borneo post  October 27, 2016, Thursday

Philippine president willing to scarp defence pacts with long time ally Washington if necessary

TOKYO: Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said yesterday he wants US troops out of his country in the next two years and is willing to scrap defence pacts with longtime ally Washington if necessary.

The comments follow a series of anti-American tirades by the firebrand leader, who has repeatedly attacked the

US while cosying up to Beijing, upending his nation’s foreign policy in comments that have sometimes been quickly retracted.

“I want, maybe in the next two years, my country free of the presence of foreign military troops,” Duterte told an economic forum in Tokyo, in a clear reference to US forces.

“I want them out and if I have to revise or abrogate agreements, executive agreements, I will,” he added.

The US, which once operated sprawling bases in the country, now has a small number of Special Forces on the southern island of Mindanao to aid in counter-terrorism operations.

Duterte has previously said he wants US troops out of Mindanao because their presence stokes tensions on the island where Islamic militants have waged a decades-long separatist insurgency.

The acid-tongued leader arrived in Tokyo Tuesday on his first visit to Japan since taking office June 30, looking to persuade executives his country is “open for business”, after overturning Manila’s traditional diplomatic alliances.

The 71-year-old has also slammed Washington for questioning his violent crime crackdown, which has claimed some 3,700 lives and attracted widespread international criticism.

Duterte has also insulted President Barack Obama, calling him a “son of a whore” and announcing a “separation” from the US during a visit to Beijing last week.

Although he quickly walked back from his comments, saying that “separation” did not mean he would “sever” ties, he reiterated his calls yesterday for an end to all joint war games with the US.

“This will be the last manoeuvre war games between the United States and the Philippines’ military,” he said of an event hosted in recent weeks by the Philippines.

Duterte is set to hold a summit with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe later on Wednesday and will also meet with Emperor Akihito during the trip.

Although his Japanese hosts depend on the US for security, Tokyo has so far not responded to Duterte’s diatribes, while Washington has taken a calm approach.

“We’re going to take the long view,” State Department spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday.

“We’re not going to react and respond to every bit of rhetoric,” he added.

Abe had worked to improve bilateral relations with Duterte’s predecessor, Benigno Aquino, providing patrol boats to support Manila in its territorial row with Beijing over rival claims to the South China Sea.

The Philippines took Beijing to an international tribunal over its extensive claims in the region and won a resounding victory in July.

But Duterte has not pressed the issue with Beijing, instead working to improve ties and attract billions of dollars in Chinese loans and investments.

Duterte also attempted to calm worries in Japan over his trip to China, assuring his audience that he was not seeking military ties with Beijing, just a closer economic relationship.

“We did not talk about arms, we did not talk about stationing of troops,” he said. “We avoided talking about alliances, military or otherwise.” — AFP

Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte called Obama and Pope Francis a “son of a whore.”

White House looks to ride out Duterte storm

AFP

 | October 25, 2016

WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama has only a handful of months left in office, but facing the shock loss of a pivotal Asian ally in the Philippines, his White House is playing a long game.

Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte says a lot of things. Most notably, the capricious 71-year-old has called Obama (and Pope Francis) a “son of a whore.”

This week he declared decades of US-Filipino ties over, although he later qualified that remark.

“We haven’t heard any specifics” said White House spokesman Josh Earnest, “but those comments are creating unnecessary uncertainty in our relationship.”

On the face of it, Duterte’s casual desecration of a 65-year-old military alliance and his eager embrace of China are blows for US influence and for Obama’s “pivot to Asia.”

The United States risks losing presence and access to ports and bases in the heart of the South China Sea — a contested geopolitical hotspot.

Under Duterte’s predecessor Benigno Aquino, China and the Philippines were at loggerheads over the contested economically vital waterway — to the point that senior US officials worried about being dragged into a war with China.

But since Duterte took office in June, he has suspended joint US-Philippine patrols and threatened an end to joint military exercises.

A split would have regional ramifications. Duterte’s sinophile turn could further split the ASEAN regional bloc, which Washington has cultivated as a counter to Beijing’s designs on dominance.

China’s hardline territorial claims and confrontational stance had given Washington the upper hand.

“The region was in many ways coming to the realization that China is not a reliable long term partner,” said Lyle Morris of the Rand Corporation.

But Beijing is picking off cash-strapped ASEAN members like Cambodia and drawing them into its orbit with vast infrastructure spending.

Duterte’s recent visit to Beijing — the provocative setting for comments on dissolving US relations, bagged him billions of dollars in deals.

“A key motivator driving the Philippine president to mend fences with China is economic,” said Murray Hiebert of CSIS.

The souring with Washington could also hit counterterrorism operations against the Abu Sayyaf Group, which has been linked to Al-Qaeda and has carried out bombings, murder and kidnapping.

Echoes of Estrada?

In its response, the White House has been wary of one lesson of Duterte’s whole political career — from mayor of Davao to president of the republic — he has a short temper.

Officials have limited public chastisements, particularly over Duterte’s war on crime, which has claimed about 3,700 lives in less than four months and raised fears about mass extrajudicial killings.

“He’s very very sensitive to criticism,” said Rand’s Morris “So any time we do — like with the extrajudicial killings — he gets really really upset and that forces him to make decisions that might not be in the best interest of the Philippines.”

Instead, the White House has largely been content to weather the storm as best it can and stress the relationship is bigger than Duterte.

As officials tweet about events around “Filipino American History Month” they point out that day-to-day contacts have little changed since Duterte came to office.

For all Duterte’s bluster, he has not followed through.

Even some Philippine officials admit they are as befuddled by Duterte’s intentions as their counterparts in Washington.

Many believe that his ability to carry out his “separation” may be limited by his own politics and popular opinion.

He would have to secure legislative support to withdraw from the mutual defense treaty, which underpins the relationship.

There is little sign that support is there. Despite being former US colonial subjects, Filipinos are overwhelmingly pro-American.

Within the armed forces — particularly the Navy and Airforce — there is already deep unease about his pivot to China.

In some quarters Duterte is being compared to Joseph Estrada — the populist former president who was ousted in 2001 amid mass protests.

Jobs, jobs, jobs

The Obama administration has begun to gently push back against the most egregious insults and actions.

It cancelled a planned meeting with Duterte in Laos and has warned ominously about “uncertainty” in corporate board rooms.

Aside from the war on drugs and America’s perfidy, Duterte’s favored topic of conversation is the economy.

Here, the United States has some leverage.

It is the second largest foreign direct investor to the Philippines — after the British Virgin Islands, an off-shore tax haven — according to Santander bank.

US-Philippines Trade ties date all the way back to 1797, when “the Astrea” was the first US vessel to return from the Philippines, loaded with indigo, hemp, spices and sugar.

Ultimately, that history and America’s trading clout may provide Obama — and his successor — with a port in this storm.

US says Littoral Combat Ship USS Coronado, now in Singapore, is combat ready

by: Wes Goodman | .

Bloomberg | .

published: October 17, 2016

USS Coronado arrives to Changi Naval Base, Singapore, on Oct. 16, 2016 to begin a rotational deployment to the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. Joshua Fulton/U.S. Navy

The latest U.S. Littoral Combat Ship to arrive in Southeast Asia is combat ready, according to a senior Navy officer, after a series of mechanical snafus cast doubt on the ability of the vessels to operate effectively in shallow coastal waters.

The USS Coronado is "ready to go do its job," said Rear Admiral Don Gabrielson, Commander of Task Force 73 and Singapore area coordinator, adding operation, maintenance, design and training issues have been addressed. "Every ship has maintenance issues. Any time you take a new class of ship and you have a new model for taking care of the ship and training the crew, there are going to be things that you learn."

"It's crossed many miles of Pacific Ocean to get here all by itself," he said on Sunday on board the ship in Singapore.

The Coronado is the first deployment of an independence-variant Littoral Combat Ship to Southeast Asia and the third overall in the class. It has a larger flight deck than other LCS vessels and greater fuel capacity. It will use Singapore as a maintenance hub and carry out drills with countries in the region.

The ships, designed for the kinds of shallow coastal waters that surround many islands and reefs in Southeast Asia, are a spearhead for the U.S. military rebalance to the region, a key part of the Obama administration's bid to balance China's greater military and economic clout. Still, they have been confronted with equipment breakdowns and harried crews, with the Navy now moving to revamp the $29 billion program.

Issues with LCS maintenance haven't set back the U.S. presence in Southeast Asia, Gabrielson said. "There's a huge amount of demand for the Littoral Combat Ship by every nation out here in terms of exercise and integration."

The ship, built in two versions by Lockheed Martin Corp. and Austal Ltd., has been criticized for its reliability flaws, limited combat power and uncertain ability to survive in combat. The service is using its first ships for more extensive testing, reducing the rotation of crew members and de-emphasizing the swapping of missions and equipment that was supposed to be a hallmark of the vessels.

Two of the first vessels experienced propulsion-system failures, in December with the Milwaukee and in January with the Fort Worth. The Fort Worth was sidelined in port in Singapore for eight months. Two more vessels experienced failures in July and August.

The U.S. is targeting to have four of the vessels in Southeast Asia in coming years, Gabrielson said. The presence of the LCS is not meant to send a specific message to China, he added. "It's not a message to anyone other than what is going on in this part of the world matters to the whole world."

China claims the bulk of the disputed South China Sea, where its military buildup and land reclamation have created tensions with some Southeast Asian nations. It has also sparked friction with the U.S. amid a broader tussle for influence between the two powers in the western Pacific.

The risk of a clash in the South China Sea lies with non-military ships, Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen said earlier this month, as China deploys more heavily armed coast guard vessels in the disputed waters.

Singapore has joined other nations in the region and the U.S. in warning the reliance on fishing boats and coast guards to assert territorial claims in the South China Sea raises the prospect of an incident. It's a key shipping lane that carries as much as $5 trillion in trade a year.

China has used its so-called white hull fleet to chase and shoo ships including fishing boats from other countries away from the reefs it claims.

The U.S. Navy commissioned the nation's seventh Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) – USS Detroit (LCS 7)

USS Detroit, the fourth Freedom-variant in the LCS class, completed acceptance trials in July and was delivered to the U.S. Navy on August 12. It joins three other Freedom-variant ships in the fleet: USS Freedom (LCS 1), USS Fort Worth (LCS 3) and USS Milwaukee (LCS 5). Collectively, Freedom-variant ships have sailed over 225,000 nautical miles and successfully completed two overseas deployments.

"The entire Lockheed Martin-led LCS team is honored to have delivered USS Detroit and witness the ship being commissioned and brought to life in her namesake city," said Joe North, vice president of Littoral Ships and Systems. "For decades to come, USS Detroit will serve in the defense of our great nation, enabling the U.S. Navy to carry out its missions around the world and representing our nation where and when needed."

The Lockheed Martin-led industry team is currently in full-rate production of the Freedom-variant, with six ships under construction at Fincantieri Marinette Marine (FMM) and three more in long-lead material procurement. The ship's modular design and affordable price enables the U.S. Navy to provide presence where and when needed at a fraction of the cost of other platforms.

LCS 7 is the sixth U.S. Navy ship named USS Detroit. Previous ships to bear the name included a Sacramento-class fast combat support ship, an Omaha-class light cruiser, a Montgomery-class cruiser and two 19th century sloops of war.

The Lockheed Martin-led LCS team is comprised of shipbuilder Fincantieri Marinette Marine, naval architect Gibbs & Cox, and more than 500 suppliers in 37 states. The Freedom-variant's steel monohull is based on a proven, survivable design recognized for its stability and reliability. With 40 percent reconfigurable shipboard space, the hull is ideally suited to accommodate additional lethality and survivability upgrades associated with the Freedom-variant Frigate.

About Lockheed Martin

Headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, Lockheed Martin is a global security and aerospace company that employs approximately 98,000 people worldwide and is principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products and services.

About Fincantieri Marinette Marine

Founded in 1942, Fincantieri Marinette Marine (FMM) is located on the Menominee River flowage into Green Bay. The largest shipyard in the Midwest, FMM has delivered more than 1,300 vessels to the U.S. Navy, U.S. Coast Guard, and commercial customers, including the technologically advanced Littoral Combat Ship Freedom variant for the U.S. Navy. In 2008, FMM along with several sister shipyards also based in the Great Lakes region, became part of FINCANTIERI, one of the world's largest shipbuilding groups and number one by diversification and innovation, with almost 19,000 employees, of whom more than 7,800 in Italy, 20 shipyards in 4 continents.  FINCANTIERI operates in the United States through its subsidiary Fincantieri Marine Group, serving both civilian and government customers. Over the past five years, FINCANTIERI invested more than $100 million in both capital infrastructure and its resources to support FMM's transformation into what is now one of the best shipyards in the United States. Employing approximately 1,500 employees, today FMM is a state-of-the-art, full service new construction shipyard.

LCS commanding officer fired amid pivotal US defense budget negotiations

The Pentagon's multibillion dollar Littoral Combat Ship program was dealt another damaging blow Friday after the commanding officer of the USS Freedom was relieved of his command

While Cmdr. Michael Wohnhaas was ultimately held responsible for engine damage sustained during Freedom's deployment in the Pacific this July, his firing sheds new light on the frailties of the long-suffering LCS program and offers congressional detractors fresh ammo to ditch the project as negotiations for the country's defense budget reach a pivotal stage.

The Naval Surface Force Pacific (SURFPAC) said in a press release that the commanding officer's departure was because of a "loss of confidence in his ability to effectively lead and carry out his assigned duties."

"The loss of confidence followed an investigation into the facts and circumstances surrounding damage to the ship's number 2 main propulsion diesel engine that occurred in the operation areas off the coast of southern California on July 11," the SURFPAC release said. "No final decision has been made yet on the options for follow-on repairs to Freedom related to the July 11 engineering casualty." 

Even though the LCS Freedom was built in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the news will also trouble the Alabama-based Austal as it will also be caught up in discussions surrounding the 2017 National Defense Appropriations Act taking place on Capitol Hill over the next month. Although the bill has passed every year since 1963, it comes with intense negotiations between members of the House and Senate, who are scrambling to ensure that defense manufacturing and military bases in their state and districts are not cut back or scrapped altogether.  

Congressional heavyweights such as Arizona Republican John McCain, who heads the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC), have taken issue with the ships design, durability, combat ability, usefulness and overall cost. In mid-September, McCain and ranking Democrat on the SASC, Jack Reed of Rhode Island, said that the $29 billion LCS project must undergo major changes or risk losing their support for future purchases.

In total, the LCS class has suffered five engineering issues over the last year, furthering scrutiny on the entire program. In light of the problems, Navy top brass ordered a stand down of all LCS engineering in August and ordered all engineers on the ships to re-train and re-certify. The move was applauded by McCain and Reed, but did not go far enough.

McCain and Reed suggested reducing the days the vessels deploy overseas, reducing the chances of major reliability failures and crew fatigue. The suggestion means that the LCS would deploy for less than 50 percent of their projected 25-year service life,

"Until these actions are taken, we will have significant concerns about supporting the procurement of additional LCSs," Senators McCain and Reed, wrote Navy officials on Sept. 15 in a letter obtained by Bloomberg News.

Current budget levels allows for 12 LCS vessels or frigates to be procured from 2018 through 2025. The House Armed Services Committee and its Senate counterpart have approved two requested for the upcoming 2017 budget, while a third was added by Congressional appropriators. So far, eight vessels in a total 40-vessel program have been delivered.

US warship challenges China's claims in South China Sea - officials

WASHINGTON - A US navy warship sailed near islands claimed by China in the South China Sea on Friday, the latest attempt to counter what Washington sees as Beijing's efforts to limit freedom of navigation in the strategic waters, US officials said.

The guided-missile destroyer USS Decatur challenged "excessive maritime claims" near the Paracel Islands, among a string of islets, reefs and shoals over which China has territorial disputes with its neighbors, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The latest US patrol, first reported by Reuters, is expected to anger Beijing and could further escalate tensions over the South China Sea. The destroyer sailed within waters claimed by China, close to but not within the 12-nautical-mile territorial limits of the islands, the officials said.

The Pentagon said the Decatur "conducted this transit in a routine, lawful manner without ship escorts and without incident." One official said the ship, which sailed near Triton and Woody Islands, was shadowed by three Chinese vessels and that all interactions were safe.

It was the fourth challenge that the United States has made to what it considers overreaching maritime claims by China in the South China Sea in the past year, and the first since May.

China, Washington's main strategic rival in Asia, claims almost the entire South China Sea, through which about $5 trillion worth of trade passes each year. The United States has criticized Beijing's build-up of military facilities in the sea and expressed concerns they could be used to restrict free movement.

China has a runway on Woody Island, the site of the largest Chinese presence on the Paracels, and has placed surface-to-air missiles there, according to US officials. Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims on the Paracels.

In the last three US freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea within the last year, US warships cruised within 12 nautical miles of islands claimed by Beijing. The actions drew angry responses from China, which has accused the United States of stirring up trouble there.

The latest operation comes just after the volatile president of the Philippines announced, during a visit to China, his "separation" from Washington and realignment with Beijing. The Philippines has been a key ally of the United States and a territorial rival of Beijing in the South China Sea. Rodrigo Duterte took office as Philippine president in June.

Duterte's announcement on Thursday was a significant turnaround after a tribunal in The Hague ruled that China did not have historic rights to the South China Sea in a case brought by the previous Philippine administration and strongly backed by the United States.

But in Washington a person close to the matter said the latest naval operation was not timed for Duterte's China visit this week and that planning for the patrol had long been in the works.

Rival claims

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam all have rival claims in the South China Sea, but Beijing's is the largest. It argues it can do what it wants on the islands it claims as they have been Chinese since ancient times.

The last US freedom-of-navigation operation in May went within 12 miles of Fiery Cross reef in the Spratly Islands and China scrambled fighter jets in response.

In January, a US destroyer went within 12 miles of Triton Island, and China called the action "irresponsible and extremely dangerous."

© Provided by InterAksyon

US officials have said the operations will continue despite Beijing's protests, but the Obama administration has been criticized in Congress for not conducting them more regularly and robustly.

Greg Poling, a South China Sea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said the administration was likely to face further criticism after opting for relatively uncontroversial challenges to China in all of its freedom-of-navigation operations in the past year.

"They will have essentially performed the same FONOP, meaning an objection to China's demand for prior notification, four times in a year," he said.

"That is not only redundant, but it does nothing to put a spotlight on the other, much more worrying, restrictions China is placing on freedom of navigation."

China has been placing more serious restrictions on movement, he said, around artificial islands China has built on reefs in the Spratly chain, notably Mischief Reef. 

(Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom)

Idrees Ali and Matt Spetalnick, Reuters22/10/2016

Rodrigo Duterte, US-bashing, and the South China Sea Conflicts

Four years ago, China seized the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in an act of aggression that provoked protests by Filipinos in cities around the world. A large coral atoll with a reef-rimmed lagoon, Scarborough Shoal lies about 120 nautical miles (222 km, 138 miles) from the Philippine coast. China could create a “strategic triangle” for controlling the South China Sea by building an artificial island and military base there, and the Philippine’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte, seems willing to essentially let China have it (formally giving Beijing sovereignty could be grounds for his impeachment).

That’s a dramatic policy shift from his predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, who challenged Beijing’s aggression in an international tribunal and won, with a July 12 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague invalidating China’s sweeping maritime claims. It was a huge victory for the Philippines, but by that time Duterte was in power, and he’s seemed uninterested in using the result to rally international pressure against China.

In recent months, Duterte has been cozying up to Beijing while lashing out at the US, along with the EU, UN, and human rights groups, for their criticism of his anti-drug war, which has seen thousands killed outside the due process of the law. This week, Duterte will make a state visit to China.

Duterte’s shift toward Bejing looks to be a major change not only for the Philippines, but for the entire Asia-Pacific region, argues Richard Javad Heydarian, a political scientist at De La Salle University in Manila andauthor of Asia’s New Battlefield: The USA, China, and the Struggle for the Western Pacific.

We asked Heydarian how Duterte is viewed by China, how his relationship with the US will evolve, and how the mercurial leader will be perceived in the Philippines after his “honeymoon period” ends. The interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Quartz: In terms of the Philippines dealing with China’s aggression in the South China Sea, how might things have been different with someone besides Duterte in power?

Heydarian: I think if Aquino were still in power or his anointed successor Mar Roxas were to be elected as the Philippine president, and the arbitration outcome was as straightforward against China, then most likely the Philippines would have adopted what I call a Nicaragua option. I’m looking at the precedence of Nicaragua vs. the US in the 1980s, where the US, similar to China, boycotted the whole arbitration case at the International Court of Justice and then rejected the unfavorable outcome. Then Nicaragua went every single year to the UN in different international fora, embarrassing the US, calling it a bully, and trying to mobilize the international community to force the US to comply with it. Eventually the US complied in an indirect, partial way.

I think that would have been the option of the Philippines, that immediately after the release of the arbitration outcome, the Philippines would have released a very strongly worded statement in the ASEAN, in the G-20, in the G-7 summit, in the UN General Assembly. Of course China could turn it down right and left, but the accumulative impact would have been huge for China.

In fact, the Chinese were somehow worried about that scenario, that the Philippines would have been on this very aggressive diplomatic offensive. Not to mention the Philippines would extend assistance to Vietnam, Indonesia, and other countries in terms of their own potential legal warfare. The Philippines could have called on other countries to join it in a class suit, like legal warfare, and also use arbitration to give a legal pretext for the United States, Japan Self-Defense Forces, the Royal Australian Navy to conduct more aggressive and sustained so-called freedom-of-navigation operations close to artificially created islands in the Spratly chain of islands.

All of these options were on the table and then Duterte said, “None of them.” Duterte very clearly said, “This is a purely bilateral issue. It’s between the Philippines and China, I’m not going to raise it in any international forum, including the ASEAN.”

What has been the impact of Duterte’s heated rhetoric against the US?

It looked like Duterte was pivoting away from the US toward the Chinese camp. This is where a lot of countries were caught off guard. Suddenly now you have this strange situation whereby it’s Singapore, the most economically exposed country to China, that is calling for compliance to the arbitration outcome. Of course, you know that they’re having their own tiffs with China over the issue.

Duterte’s saying, “I’m going to get out of the US Alliance and I’m going to build a new alliance with China and Russia.” This was a huge, huge swing from the Aquino period of counter-balancing against China, of siding with the US and Japan against China, to now suddenly saying, “I don’t want to be with the US. I want to join the Chinese and Russians.” Even if this is so far just pure rhetoric, if not bluster, it has had huge short-term impact.

The most immediate was that Duterte single-handedly undermined America’s plans of using the legal warfare as a pretext to step up its military footprint, along with France, to constrain China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. [US] president [Barack] Obama wanted to use the arbitration outcome … to call upon the international community to pressure China to comply with it. But because of Duterte’s 180-degree shift on the position, president Obama looked isolated during the ASEAN summit. Some of the EU officials also told me, “Why should we take the hardline position when the very country that initiated the case is suddenly sounding completely different?”

There was definitely huge short-term shock to all those prepared for a “contstrainment” strategy against China—not a containment, because China is too important and too economically integrated to contain. You can constrain China by mobilizing diplomatic pressure, by conducting more multilateral exercises among like-minded countries. [But] Duterte essentially cleared the deck so the poker game had to start from scratch.

How will Duterte’s relationship with the US evolve?

There’s this huge commotion that perhaps under Duterte the Philippines is going to be the next Venezuela, that Duterte is a Hugo Chavez and he’s going to extract the Philippines out of the US camp and jump into bed with the Chinese and Russians. I think that’s going a little bit too far. I think the more likely scenario for Duterte is that he’s going to go the Erdogan or Turkish way. If you have noticed Turkey, they have a very colorful strongman, too, called Mr. Erdogan.

Erdogan has a very questionable human rights record. Whenever [he] has come under attack [for this] by the US and EU… he just threatens them with access to military bases, or he conducts diplomatic visits to Russia and he flirts with China. But at the end of the day, military-to-military relations continue despite all the diplomatic toxicity.

I think Duterte may tinker here and there with existing agreements with the US, particularly those exercises in the South China Sea that are a sore in the eye of the Chinese. In exchange for that, [he might] ask the Chinese to give us concessions in the Scarborough Shoal, in terms of fishery access, and some sort of a non-aggression pact, whereby the Chinese will give us assurances that they will not impose or implement an ADIZ or any kind of exclusion zone within areas where we have personnel and territory.

What about the possibility of China building a military base at Scarborough Shoal?

I think the Chinese are going to have a hard time suspending any construction activities in the Scarborough Shoal forever. I think it’s possible the Chinese, in the short run, may suspend any construction activities in the Scarborough Shoal to facilitate a warming-up of relations with Duterte.

How does China view Duterte?

The Chinese themselves have some legitimate worries. One is that Duterte’s such a mercurial person that there’s no assurance that later on he will not turn on China, for whatever reason. He may be powerful, he may be determined, but it’s hard to predict him.

The second thing is, they don’t know if Duterte will last. That’s a problem. There’s no guarantee that Duterte can last long in power if he continues to do what he’s doing, which is alienating all the important external and domestic variables and forces. So I think the Chinese will think twice before making any huge agreement with him because the sustainability of that agreement is under question.

The Chinese are actually in a very tough position too. They don’t know how much should they bet on this guy. He’s giving them a unique opportunity—never in the history of the Philippines have you had president like this. But at the same time, the risk is too high. So let’s see how wild of a gambler Xi Jinping is, especially as [the Chinese] head toward their own leadership transition in 2017.

So if China doesn’t give Duterte a big concession of some sort, what might it give him?

What could happen is some sort of provisional agreement whereby China is the factor in control, but gives the Filipinos access, Philippine fisherman access, to the Scarborough Shoal here and there. If they don’t give Duterte anything, then Duterte will not be able to sell any agreement with China, because the Filipino people, who are very anti-China, will say, “Oh, so genius of you, to piss off the Americans and go and beg the Chinese and get nothing in exchange.”

Duterte is popular, but so is the United States. The US had a 92% approval rating last year. So maybe Duterte now can pull off this diplomatic flirtation with China, but if the Chinese don’t give him anything within a year or so, then Duterte will have no choice but to pivot back to the United States.

What is behind Duterte’s attitude toward the US?

His lashing out at the US is a product of three factors. One, it’s partly a reflection of his conviction as a leftist, anti-imperialist guy. Second, he’s irritated with the US over the human rights criticisms. He really feels this is an interference in his mandate. Third, this is part of his signaling to China that “You can deal with me as an independent leader. Don’t worry, the US is not part of the equation at all.”

I think he’s the first Filipino president who is going to have his first state visit to China, and not to the United States. The symbolic value is huge. Practically all of his predecessors were either very close to the US or always thought twice before criticizing the United States, although they may have harbored some misgivings in private. But this guy is lashing out at the US in such an open way.

Where does Japan come into this?

The Japanese are our top trading partner, top investment partner, and top source of development aid. They’re definitely the Philippines’ best economic friend. They have always had a good relationship with Duterte, since his mayor days… the biggest investors in Davao were Japanese. In the long game, they will say the big difference is [they] don’t have any disputes with the Philippines. [They would say] that “if the Chinese step up their economic investments, we can also step up our economic investments.” Japan is very confident.

Does standing up to the US help Duterte look strong when he might otherwise be perceived as weak because of his China approach? How will he be perceived down the road?

Duterte’s charisma is largely tied to his macho image. That’s the Latin American caudillos, the tough man. But it’s hard to say where his popularity is coming from. Is it his war on drugs? Is it his standing up tough to the US? It could be a combination of factors. But I think it’s most of all because it’s his honeymoon period—it’s as simple as that. If you look at his approval ratings, it’s almost exactly the same as the approval ratings of three or four of his predecessors at this stage in their careers.

Many people think this is just trash talk—this is trash talk and the guy looks tough.

[But] if the US begins to downgrade development aid and military aid, and makes visa applications for Filipinos harder, that’s when Duterte’s going to lose support. Once they get hurt in the purse or in terms of their entry to [travel to] the US, then they’re going to speak out: “Ok, maybe the president was foolish.”

by View from the Philippines. (Richard Javad Heydarian 

written  BY

Steve Mollman October 16, 2016