Cost of conflict in South China Sea 'too high'

China and several Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, have competing claims over territorial waters in the South China Sea (SCS). In recent years, Beijing has been building airstrips and hangars, as well as stationing anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems in the Spratly Islands — a collection of reefs and rocks located off the coast of the Philippines. 

China claims sovereignty over a large part of the South China Sea, although these claims were rejected by an international tribunal in 2016. The head of the US Pacific Command at the time warned the international community about China's "assertive, aggressive behavior in the South China Sea."

At this year's Munich Security Conference, Singapore's Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen spoke to DW about the importance of multilateral cooperation and transparency between countries in avoiding conflict. 

DW: The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for quite some time. In case of an all-out military confrontation, what could Singapore do to diffuse tensions?

Ng Eng Hen: I don't think an all-out confrontation will take place. All the parties involved — the claimant states and the international community — recognize that the price is too high and the issues in the South China Sea do not warrant an actual physical confrontation.

Having said that, it doesn't mean there can't be any miscalculations or mishaps. This occurred recently when the [USS] Decatur during a freedom of navigation operation came close to a Chinese ship. We all recognize that there's been dispute over territorial claims of China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, with a slight overlap of their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) with the nine-dash line [China's demarcation line in the South China Sea].

All the claimant states have built on the disputed territory. Some argue that China has built more — whatever the case, all have done so. Whatever China has done, whether it's in the Spratlys or the Paracels, has allowed them to operationalize their forward defense line. It's now some 800 kilometers (500 miles) from the mainland coast, with intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance capabilities, extended runways, which can accommodate their planes including aircraft and fighter jets. The features on the South China Sea have point defense systems. I doubt if anyone is thinking of pushing the Chinese off.

Are you worried about it? Do you think it could also endanger Singapore's security?

Not Singapore's security, but you know the South China Sea is one of the busiest sea lines of communication, carrying a sizeable load of global trade and functioning as a maritime passage for oil — a strategic asset. But all the countries know that. So it's not so worrisome for Singapore. They will be careful not to precipitate any confrontation. In fact, on the ground, there have been some incidents, but on a historical scale and compared to some other regions, it's significantly less.

Do you think China's belligerence and increasing hegemony could pose a challenge to other countries as well?

That's an opinion. From China's perspective, they term it a peaceful rise, which they want other countries to participate in and to that extent, I think there is some truth to it. For the past decade, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, when Europe and America were in economic doldrums, it was Chinese growth that sustained Asia.

I remember meeting a group of businessmen at the time, including American and European businessmen, and asking them: "Where would you have liked to be in this decade?" Three of them said Asia. So I wouldn't mischaracterize China's role. We recognize China's claims on the nine-dash line, as well as the arbitral ruling that the Philippines brought upon the Chinese, making a declaration in terms of claims and what the features are entitled to. The Chinese approach has been to establish a code of conduct with the claimant states and with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

BEIJING'S ISLAND-BUILDING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Runway

China is expanding the construction of its facilities on Fiery Cross Reef. Provided by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), this June 28, 2015 photo reveals Beijing has nearly completed a 3,000 meter (9,800-foot) airstrip, long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft. Two helipads, up to 10 satellite communications antennas, and one possible radar tower are also visible.

ASEAN appears to be a bit split on the South China Sea issue. What role can Singapore play to help the regional players find common ground?

There's been the declaration of conduct, which preceded the code of conduct, signed by all ASEAN leaders and China in 2012. There has been a consensus statement with the defense and foreign ministers of ASEAN, who consistently declare their resolve for the dispute to be settled by peaceful means and respect for international law.

As to the role Singapore can play: we take a very practical approach. When Brunei had the chair [at ASEAN], we persuaded them to hold an 18-nation maritime exercise, and we succeeded in doing that. This was also an exchange of ten ASEAN countries plus eight others.

Recently, as chair, Singapore facilitated the first ASEAN-China maritime exercise — in China. I think our approach is that you have to increase these engagements to reduce the risk of miscalculation. The ASEAN defense ministers' meeting has also set up hotlines so that you can deescalate.

DW

• Date 18.02.2019
• Author Shamil Shams (Interview)

China’s artificial islands -How they do it?

Will Nicol

Digital Trends  January 16, 2017                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Extending south of China and ringed in by the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia is a 1.35 million-square-mile body of water known as the South China Sea. If it truly is the case that East Asia is the global economy’s center of gravity, then the South China Sea might be its singularity. In 1405, the Chinese admiral Zheng He set sail with a fleet of treasure ships, traveling to neighboring nations and eventually as far as Mombasa, spreading knowledge of China’s wealth. Today, the South China Sea is again a venue for China to display its power — though with a very different fleet.

Although from on high the sea may seem a blue wasteland, punctuated occasionally by specks of uninhabited land, the islands have seen a frenzy of activity in recent years: China has constructed a series of artificial islands throughout the area. These artificial islands are a showcase of Chinese engineering, and this muscle-flexing has provoked strong reactions from China’s neighbors in the region, particularly the Philippines, which brought a suit against China to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. On July 12, 2016, the international tribunal ruled against China, although the superpower refused to acknowledge the decision or even the court’s jurisdiction.

What exactly are China’s artificial islands, and why are they so important? As it turns out, China’s island-building plan sits on a contentious intersection of technology, politics, and the environment.

How do you build an island?

For those wondering what an artificial island is made of, the answer is the same thing most islands are made of: sand. The process for building these islands is remarkably simple, although the technology involved is imposing.

The first requirement for an island is a base to build on. Naturally formed islands don’t float in the water; rather, an island is simply the top, visible part of a land mass that is mostly underwater.

To construct its artificial islands, China builds atop already existing, islands, rocks, and even coral reefs. Building an island that can support airstrips and other military installations requires a lot of sand, however. To gather it, China uses a fleet of dredgers, ships designed to pick up and move materials from the seafloor. These dredgers use large tubes with cutting attachments at the end to grind up material on the seafloor and suck it up. From there, the material is carried through pipes or hoses and dumped on top of reefs, rocks, and other existing formations.

dredgers pouring sand

Once the islands are large and stable enough, China can then lay down cement and build structures on them. The extent of the changes can be striking. For example, below is Fiery Cross Reef in 2006.

fiery cross reef 2006

Here is Fiery Cross Reef in 2015, after China converted it into an island.

to be continue Part 2

fiery cross reef 2015

CSIS Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative / DigitalGlobe

The new island includes a runway and harbor, as well as numerous other buildings.

What’s the point?

China’s island-building efforts require a heavy investment in engineering and infrastructure, so why is the country going to all this trouble? Perhaps the prime motivation is to reinforce China’s claim over the region. The Spratly Islands and other nearby chains lack indigenous populations. As such, they are claimed by the various neighboring nations. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and China all claim portions of the South China Sea, but China’s claim is extraordinary. Dubbed the “nine-dash line,” China’s claim (as presented to the United Nations in 2009) covers most of the sea, extending down to the coast of Malaysia. Naturally, this has proven contentious, prompting the Philippines — located very close to the Spratlys, which China includes in its claims — to bring a case against China in international court.

By transforming reefs and cays into military installations, China is extending its military capabilities in the South China Sea. Airstrips, radar arrays, and all such buildings give China the ability to project force throughout the region.

Why is controlling the South China Sea so important? Although the scattered islands may be unimpressive, the South China Sea is one of the busiest trade routes in the world. According to information gathered by the council on Foreign Relations, more than $5.3 trillion worth of shipping travels through the sea each year; $1.2 trillion of this trade belongs to the United States.

Beyond its importance as a trade route, the South China Sea may also contain bountiful resources beneath the surface. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that there are 11 billion barrels of oil in the South China Sea, as well as 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. As East Asia continues to grow in importance, these resources — and who gets to control them — will become more important.

Fuel is not the only resource in abundance in the South China Sea. The region is one of the most important zones in the world for fishing. In fact, 12 percent of the global catch comes from the South China Sea. Astonishing as it may sound, this may be a far bigger point of contention than the fuel reserves. Fishing is a crucial industry for China, which is currently the largest producer of fish in the world. China accounts for 17.4 percent of the world’s marine catch, nearly three times that of runner up Indonesia, according to a report from the Center for Naval Analyses. China is also the world’s biggest exporter of fish products, with nearly $20 billion in exports in 2013.

What’s the ecological impact?

The political implications of this island-building plan are dire, as are the environmental consequences. Coral reefs are delicate ecosystems, made up of thousands of various creatures, and the sand piled on top of the reefs smothers these organisms. This is troubling because, although reefs occupy a tiny fraction of the world’s oceans, they are among the most populous marine areas, supporting thousands of different species. The damage does not stop at the reefs, either.

“The sand and silt stirred up by the dredgers covers most of the lagoon and is settling out on most of the remaining reef,” Professor John McManus said to The Guardian. “The sand will kill nearly any bottom-dwelling organisms on which it settles in large quantities, and clog the gills of most fish.”

This damage to coral reefs is not easily fixed, either. According to McManus, coral buried under sand cannot recover. As a result, thousands of species in the sea could be destroyed, and this could have consequences beyond the ecological. Coral reefs are, amazingly enough, important to the development of pharmaceuticals; scientists have developed several drugs and treatments by studying marine organisms.

What happens next?

Although the international tribunal at The Hague ruled unanimously against China’s claim to most of the disputed territory, the tribunal has no means to enforce its ruling. China, for its part, has refused to take part in the arbitration from the beginning, and the country’s Foreign Ministry does not recognize the ruling as valid, according to a statement released soon afterward. Indeed, the country is poised to expand its operations in the South China Sea, rather than backing down.

Chinese authorities are already planning to build a massive laboratory nearly 10,000 feet beneath the surface, says a report from Bloomberg. Several countries, including the Philippines and Japan, have called for China to respect the ruling, and the U.S. has been conducting “freedom of navigation” patrols near the islands and reefs under Chinese control.

In December, the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) published a report claiming that China has installed weapon platforms on the island, based on recent satellite images. These weapons include “large anti-aircraft guns and probable close-in weapons systems (CIWS),” which are designed to shoot down nearby missiles and aircraft. Why the need for such weaponry? “Among other things, they would be the last line of defense against cruise missiles launched by the United States or others against these soon-to-be-operational air bases,” according to the AMTI.

China maintains, however, that these installations are “legitimate and lawful.” A statement by the Chinese Defense Ministry put it poetically: “If someone makes a show of force at your front door, would you not ready your slingshot?”

It seems that none of the parties operating in the region are willing to back down. For now, the artificial islands remain a gray harbinger of an uncertain future.

South China Sea tensions surge as China lands plane on artificial island

BEIJING: China’s first landing of a plane on one of its new island runways in the South China Sea shows Beijing’s facilities in the disputed region are being completed on schedule and military flights will inevitably follow, foreign officials and analysts said.

China’s increasing military presence in the disputed sea could effectively lead to a Beijing-controlled air defense zone, they said, ratcheting up tensions with other claimants and with the United States in one of the world’s most volatile areas.

Chinese foreign ministry officials confirmed on Saturday that a test flight by a civilian plane landed on an artificial island built in the Spratlys, the first time Beijing has used a runway in the area.

Vietnam launched a formal diplomatic protest while Philippines Foreign Ministry spokesman Charles Jose said Manila was planning to do the same. Both have claims to the area that overlap with China.

“That’s the fear, that China will be able take control of the South China Sea and it will affect the freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight,” Jose told reporters.

China has been building runways on the artificial islands for over a year, and the plane’s landing was not a surprise, although it will almost certainly increase tensions.

The runway at the Fiery Cross Reef is 3,000 meters (10,000 feet) long and is one of three China was constructing on artificial islands built up from seven reefs and atolls in the Spratlys archipelago.

The runways would be long enough to handle long-range bombers and transport craft as well as China’s best jet fighters, giving them a presence deep into the maritime heart of Southeast Asia that they have lacked until now.

Work is well underway to complete a range of port, storage and personnel facilities on the new islands, U.S. and regional officials have said.

Fiery Cross is also expected to house advanced early warning radars and military communications facilities, they said.

Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that the new islands would be mostly for civilian use, such as coast guard activity and fishing research.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at the weekend that the test flight was intended to check whether the runway met civilian aviation standards and fell “completely within China’s sovereignty”.

Leszek Buszynski, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, said he believed military landings on the islands were now “inevitable”.

An air defense zone, while unlikely soon, was feasible and possible in future once China’s built up its air strength.

“The next step will be, once they’ve tested it with several flights, they will bring down some of their fighter air power – SU-27s and SU-33’s – and they will station them there permanently. That’s what they’re likely to do.”

De Facto Defence Zone

Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at Singapore’s ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, said he expected tensions to worsen as China used its new facilities to project power deeper into the South China Sea.

Even if China stopped short of formally declaring an Air Defence Identification Zone, known as an ADIZ, Beijing’s need to protect its new airstrips and other facilities could see it effectively operating one.

“As these facilities become operational, Chinese warnings to both military and civilian aircraft will become routine,” Storey said.

“These events are a precursor to an ADIZ, or an undeclared but de facto ADIZ, and one has to expect tensions to rise.”

Hua, the Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman, said on Monday that there were no immediate plans for an ADIZ in the South China Sea.

“As for whether China will establish an ADIZ, the decision will be based on our judgment of the situation and our needs,” she aid, adding that Beijing respected other nations’ rights to international freedoms of navigation and overflight.

China claims most of the South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion of world trade ships every year. Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan have rival claims.

The United States has no claim in the South China Sea, but has been highly critical of China’s assertiveness and says it will protect freedom of navigation.

China sparked condemnation from the United States and Japan in late 2013 when it declared an ADIZ over the East China Sea, covering uninhabited islands disputed with Tokyo.

Chinese officials have reserved their right to do the same in the South China Sea but have said the conditions do not warrant one yet.

However, regional military officials say they are logging increased warnings to aircraft from Chinese radio operators, including some from ground stations on Fiery Cross reef.

-Reuters

Vietnam protests after China lands plane on disputed Spratlys

January 3, 2016

HANOI: Vietnam formally accused China of violating its sovereignty and a recent confidence-building pact on Saturday by landing a plane on an airstrip Beijing has built on an artificial island in a contested part of the South China Sea.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Le Hai Binh said the airfield, had been “built illegally” on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly archipelago, in territory that was “part of Vietnam’s Spratlys”.

China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the complaint, saying that what was a test flight to the newly built airfield on the reef, which China calls Yongshu Jiao, was a matter “completely within China’s sovereignty,” the Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.

The United States said it was concerned that the flight had exacerbated tensions.

Washington has criticized China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea and worries that Beijing plans to use them for military purposes, even though China says it has no hostile intent.

Pooja Jhunjhunwala, a spokeswoman for the US State Department, said there was “a pressing need for claimants to publicly commit to a reciprocal halt to further land reclamation, construction of new facilities, and militarization of disputed features.”

“We encourage all claimants to actively reduce tensions by refraining from unilateral actions that undermine regional stability, and taking steps to create space for meaningful diplomatic solutions to emerge,” she said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China used a civil aircraft to conduct the flight to test whether the airfield facilities meet civil-aviation standards.

“China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters. China will not accept the unfounded accusation from the Vietnamese side,” she said, referring to the Spratly’s by their Chinese name.

Hua added that China hoped Vietnam could work to achieve “sustainable, healthy and stable” development of bilateral ties.

Hanoi’s Foreign Ministry said Vietnam handed a protest note to China’s embassy and asked China not to repeat the action.

It called the flight “a serious infringement of the sovereignty of Vietnam on the Spratly archipelago”.

China claims almost all the South China Sea, which is believed to have huge deposits of oil and gas, and through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year, and has been building up facilities on the islands it controls.

It completed an airfield on Fiery Cross Reef that security experts say could accommodate most Chinese military aircraft late last year.

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan also have rival claims in the South China Sea.

– Reuters