Thursday 17 February 2011

SGPV and opposition statements – Dzirhan Mahadzir

Unsurprisingly the recent announcement regarding the Second Generation Patrol Vessel program has the DAP up in arms (though noticeably its PR colleagues in PAS and PKR have been fairly quiet on it or maybe I missed something somewhere).
I do find it amusing that DAP member Liew Chin Tong said the ships would be better built overseas as it would be cheaper but provided no facts on it and at the same time alienates the people of Lumut where the ships would be built, and there I thought Pakatan Rakyat wanted to win back Perak. I actually wonder if the ships were to be built in Selangor, Kedah, Kelantan or Penang, would Liew still recommend the ships be built overseas?
Meanwhile DAP MP’s Tony Pua has put out a statement on the purchase of 6 offshore patrol vessels, Pua’s assertions though, particularly in regard to similar vessels comparison are fairly misleading to those unfamiliar with defence issues but which a number of people are likely to buy wholesale.
Before going into that sphere though, Pua’s assertion that the Ministry of Defence has a practice to award contracts before well before the terms of contract has been finalized should be addressed. The problem in this is that Pua confuses a Letter of Intent as in regard to the AV8 AFV and OPV announcements as to an actual contract.
An LOI is actually a document outlining a preliminary agreement between two parties before the actual contract is finalized and an official notification that the two parties are negotiating. In most cases it is also to clarify key points for complex deals and to provide safeguards for both parties if neither can agree on the final terms of the contract, and mostly it is non-binding in contrast to a contract.
A potential value is announced by the government in an LOI for various reasons however it often is not the actual value when the contract occurs, particularly in regard to complex arms purchases. The LOI value is actually an indication of how high the ceiling value of the contract will be provided that the company meets all that the government requires or specifies in terms both in terms of technical and delivery requirements and also if the company offers additional services, equipment etc to the government which the government had not considered in the deal but would like to also include in the deal since the company is offering it.
Basically the government is telling the company that is has X amount of money for the deal provided the company meets all that it wants and if possible offers more, but in most cases this never happens, the company naturally has it’s own idea as to what it will for provide for a particular amount and the result is both the government and company will then negotiate down to a deal satisfactory to both parties.
The ceiling value is also there so that for the government, it can allocate and plan accordingly for the future as such negotiations may take months so in essence it is necessary for the government to plan based on the highest possible cost though in actuality this would not occur and the contract price would be less. The ceiling value is also necessary for the company in the contract so that it can show to its shareholders, financiers and investors that it has a potential deal valued at such an amount in the works.
In the past, under previous administrations, one of the most common complaints of defence companies was that the Malaysian government often would not give any indications publicly of how much a defence deal was potentially worth, which made it hard for companies to justify their efforts to shareholders and investors and also obtain financial backing.
Occasionally companies would not be told of the ceiling value but only the requirements and as a result would submit something which met the requirements but be above what the government was willing to pay. Setting a ceiling value offers the company a figure to work around with during the negotiations to meet the potential contract.
Now Pua’s analysis of ship prices is very much the approach of those unfamiliar with the defence field, namely to look on the internet for news reports of contracts on similar type ships and then contrast prices, unfortunately it doesn’t quite work that way for defence contracts for several reasons, first off, the Second Generation Patrol Vessel is a type known as a Corvette warship, however corvette vessels range in weight from 500 tons to slightly above 2000 tons, so in Pua’s case some of the warships he compares are less in tonnage and size than the SGPV’s planned 2,200 tons and 99m length and in the case of the Greek Super Vita, or Roussen class, he has got the comparison wrong as the Roussen class is actually a Fast Attack Craft of 580 tons and 62m in length, so it’s like comparing a mini-Cooper to a 4x4 WD in price.
Of course, naturally people will say why not divide the price by tonnage for comparison but again this is not possible for three factors, firstly, there key differences to ships even if of similar size and tonnage due to the type of equipment they mount such as weapons, electronics, engines etc and their design along with construction material, all of which makes substantial differences to the price.
Secondly, is the time of the ships were contracted for, defence prices are not static prices, and citing prices for ships contracts 5 years or more ago do not reflect current prices. Finally a contract for a ship or ships is not just for the ships alone but also maintenance, support, training and delivery, hence if you decided to forgo maintenance, support and training options the cost would be lower, a slower construction/delivery schedule could result, depending on the negotiations, being cheaper or costing more in the fact that you have a series of lower payments but adds up to more in the end, pretty much like loans or hire-purchase.
In all Pua’s ship price comparisons, it all falls foul of the first and second factors so much that it makes the third factor pretty much moot. Morever his statement that the US built its LCS for at a budget US$300 million is wrong, the US may have budgeted such but there had been warnings that the US was too overoptimistic on the price which eventually ended up costing US$637 million and US$704 million respectively for each of the two different design initial ships.

 Indonesia spend 3% of GDP, Singapore 4.9%, Thailand 1.8%, Malaysia 2%. SIngapore even has a domestic supplier. Indonesia has 2 subs and planning to buy more in 2011, Singapore have subs since 1995 (6 of them), Thais are looking into purchasing subs this year as well.


Model
Type
Ton
Dimen
Armament (plus associated sensors for weapons)
Additonal
Main role
Price USD (M) / ship
SGPV
Corvette/light frigate class
2,200T
99m ,
76mm main gun, possible 20mm/30mm cannons, Anti-Ship Missile, Anti-Air Missile, Anti-Submarine Weapons
helipad/hangar for ASW helo
Frontline Warship for Malaysian waters plus EEZ
$329
Ireland Roisin class
Offshore Patrol Vessel
1700t
78.9m
76mm Main Gun, 2 .50 cal machineguns, 4 7.62mm General Purpose Machine Guns
no helo deck/hangar.
EEZ patrolling, Search and Rescue, Maritime enforcement
$34
German K130 Braunschweig class
Corvette
1840t
89m.
: 76mm Main Gun, 2 27mm cannons,  RBS-15 anti-ship missile, Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) anti-air missile, minelaying
 helideck for naval helicopters but hangar only large enough for 2 UAV
Anti-surface warfare ship designed to operate beyond German waters together with Coalition fleet
$185
New Zealand Protector class:,
Offshore Patrol Vessel
1900t,
85m.
 25mm Naval cannon, 2 x.50cal MGs
 helideck and hangar for Super Seasprite helo with torpedo, bomb or depth charge.

Maritime enforcement, EEZ patrolling, limited wartime role.

$70.5
Israeli Saar V class
Corvette
1275t
85.6m
 25mm Phalanx Close in Weapons Systems, Barak anti-air missile, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine torpedoes
helicopter hangar and helipad.
Frontline warship for employment within Israeli waters
$260
Greek Roussen class (Super Vita class):
Fast Attack Craft
580t
 62m
76mm main gun, 2 30mm cannons, Exocet Anti-ship Missile, RAM anti-air missile
, no helo/helipad
Fast attack crafT
$ 108

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